The WBC Model (-20,000 BCE - 0 BCE)

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Notes

• World Population  the total number of humans currently alive. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded 8 billion (8,000,000,000) on November 15, 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach a billion and only 218 more years from there to reach 8 billion. As of 2026, the world population is approximately 8.3 billion. However, this figure is only a very rough approximation.
• Gross World Product (GWP)  the combined gross national income (previously, the "gross national product") of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).
• Global Surface Temperature the average temperature of Earth's surface at a given time. It is a combination of sea surface temperature and the near-surface air temperature over land, weighted by their respective areas.
• Unified Growth Theory For most of human history, technological progress expanded population size but had little effect on living standards. As technological progress gradually gathered momentum, through the mutually reinforcing interaction between population growth, adaptation, and innovation, the increasing importance of human capital in coping with a rapidly changing technological environment prompted parents to prioritize child quality over quantity, triggering the onset of the demographic transition. The decline in fertility freed the growth process from the counterbalancing effects of population growth and, along with advancements in knowledge and education, laid the foundation for sustained economic expansion and modern prosperity.
• Malthusian Growth Model a simple exponential growth model, is essentially exponential growth based on the idea of the function being proportional to the speed to which the function grows. The model is named after Thomas Robert Malthus, who wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), one of the earliest and most influential books on population.
• Technological Change the overall process of invention, innovation and diffusion of technology or processes.^[1][2] Technological change includes the invention of technologies (including processes) and their commercialization or release, research and development (producing emerging technologies), the continual improvement of technologies (toward goals such as maximizing profit), and the diffusion of technologies throughout industry or society (which sometimes involves disruption and convergence).

WBC Measurement Model

In the WBC State Space, three component variables (computed using Principal Components Analysis) explain 100% of the variation in the indicator variables (N=Population, Q=Production and T=Global Temperature): W1=(Growth), W2=(N+Q-T) and W3=(Q-N), the Malthusian factor.

WBC AIC Statistics

WBC Input Variables

WBC Model

WBC Shock Input

Global Temperature